When: Saturday, November 9, 7pm EST
Where: Moon Township PA, Charles L. Sewall Center
Ken Pom: RMU 167/ Savannah State 282
Last Meeting: 2012, RMU 52 Savannah State 61
Projected RMU Starters: Ant Myers Pate, Karvel Anderson, Lucky Jones, Jeremiah Worthem, Mike McFadden
Getting to know the Tigers: Last year the Tigers were one of the best teams in all of college basketball defensively. They stifled the Colonials in their matchup last season holding RMU to a season low 52 points. The Colonials weren't the Tigers only victim either. Savannah State finished 1st in the MEAC in defense, and put up some staggering numbers. According to the KenPom advanced analytics, the Tigers finished fourth in the country in turnover rate, turning the opposition over at a 26% rate. They also finished fifth in three point defense, and fifth in steal percentage.Overall they finished 16th adjusted defense efficiency (which may be the best way to look at a team's defense as a whole).
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| Deven Williams will key the Tigers offensively. (Ross Taylor | The Virginian-Pilot) |
Guard Deven Williams is the player to watch for the Tigers. He averaged 21 points his last four games and will be leaned upon heavily as Savannah State finds itself early in the season.
Who are these Colonials? I can't wait find out this answer, and we get our first glimpse Saturday. Will we get a complete answer? No of course not. We will however learn more than we did from the exhibition and weeks of practice leading into the opener. A few specific things I will be paying close attention to. One, who is that "5th guy." we know RMU has a strong top four with Myers Pate, Anderson, Jones, and McFadden. I wanna see who that other guy is. This doesn't necessarily mean who starts with that group, but who plays best with them. The two guys I think have the best shot to be that "5th guy" are Desjuan Newton and or Jeremiah Worthem.
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| Look for Lucky Jones to have a strong opener for Andy Toole (Getty Images). |
I'm not too worried about this, but will Karvel Anderson and Lucky Jones bounce back from their bad exhibition vs Cal U? Both struggle scoring (Anderson 1-9 from the floor, Jones just seven points), and didn't make a real impact in that game offensively. Savannah State will provided a much bigger challenge especially on that side of the ball. Those guys will have to play well for RMU to win, and I expect they will.
3 Keys to the Game (+ 1 because we love you guys): Point Guard play and turnovers...Three Point shooting...No place like the Chuck... Defense, defense, defense, and FOULS.
1) Point guard play and turnovers... If RMU can force turnovers, and limit their turnovers, they should win this game easily. This won't be easy though. Last year Myers Pate had a tough game against the Tigers, turning it over three times in just 22 minutes. He also missed all six shots from the field and made no real positive impact on the game. I expect him to bounce back. He was playing with a bunch of injuries and lacked confidence at that time last year. He's "the man" now with Venton Jones graduated. He will play well and redeem himself. The backup PG, likely Kavon Stewart, will have his hands full. There are few teams Robert Morris will play this season that pressure the ball and get after you defensively like the Tigers will Saturday. Stewart will have his hands full in his first college game. With that said, if he can keep the turnovers down, RMU will be fine.
2) Three Point Shooting... RMU lived and died by the long ball last year. When they were on, there was no stopping the Colonials. When they were off, well they were eliminated from the NEC tournament by Mount St. Mary's. RMU finished the season 22nd in the country (38.1%) in three point shooting according to KenPom. Lucky Jones shot over 50% from distance in NEC play, and Karvel Anderson lit it up from three point range all year despite playing with a broken shooting wrist (Ouchhhh). He's healthy now. Coron Williams, Velton Jones and Russell Johnson have all moved on, but the Colonials have plenty of good shooters to throw at opponents (I'm really interested to see how Chuck Oliver does, and if he gets more minutes that the Cal U exhibition). Savannah State can defend the three extremely well as noted above, finishing fifth in the country in three point defense (holding teams to 28%). Something has to give.
3) No place like the Chuck... RMU is really good at home. They went 13 and 3 at home last year, and haven't lost more than three games in Moon over the course of a season since 07-08 (and they only lost four that year). You have to go back all the way to 04-05 to find a year in which they lost more than five. The Colonials are typically very good in home openers, winning their last 15. Their last loss at home in the first game was November 15th, 1997 when they fell 72-56 to Bucknell. I was seven then. I'm 23 now. So yea, it's been awhile.
+1) Defense, defense, defense and FOULS...If you haven't heard, the NCAA has some new defensive rules that could change the landscape of college basketball. The block/charge call was adjusted to assist the offensive player but the biggest change is the new hand check rule. You can read more about that here: New NCAA Rule. Both RMU and Savannah State play hardcore in your face, aggressive man to man defense. Make no mistake about it, this will be an ugly game with a lot of fouls as the two teams adjust.
Coach Toole told CTC "I am ok with it (the rule change). I think the game does get hurt by some of the holding, but I also think there is a lack of skill that also hurts scoring." When Toole was asked about how long the adjustment period could be he said, "Could take awhile. We try and talk about it everyday , it is going to be tough."
While both defense should put up good numbers and force turnovers, there could be a lot of fouls, a lot of free throws --I bet both teams are in the bonus by the 12 minute mark both half's-- and key players in fould trouble early.
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| CTC believes Desjuan Newton will help pace the Colonials to a 1-0 start (RMU Athletics). |
Lee Kunkel (@Kunkel5) --
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