When: Saturday March (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) 1st, 6pm
Where: Spiro Sports Center, Staten Island NY
KenPom: RMU 156, Wagner 176
Link/TV: Root Sports, MSG, Fox College Sports
Storyline: Robert Morris and Wagner square off on national TV in a final tuneup before the NEC tournament begins Wednesday March 5th. The game has no impact on the final standings, but RMU still has a lot to play for. A win, and the Colonials are the first one loss NEC team in the NEC since 2001.
Folks, MARCH IS HERE!
The best month of year is here. Finally! It's March, and the madness is RIGHT around the corner. Before the NEC tournament gets going next week, there is one more Saturday full of NEC regular season games. Four of the five have major implications on the league standings and playoff positioning.
The game that does not?
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| A handy tie breakers chart (Craig D'Amico). |
RMU vs Wagner.
Oddly enough, this game, circled by everyone as possibly the game of the year, has no meaning on the league tournament. The Colonials are the one seed, the Seahawks are the two need. No matter what the result Saturday night, that isn't changing.
However, both teams have a lot to play for. Let's start with Wagner....
Getting to know the Seahawks:
Currently there is one team as hot, if not hotter then RMU.
It's Wagner.
The Seahawks have won seven in a row, and clinched the two seed Thursday night with an impressive 74-45 victory over St Francis PA.
They lost one of their better players for the season, guard Jay Harris was suspended for the year a few weeks back, but guys like Latif Rivers, Kenny Ortiz, and Naofall Folahan have picked up their play.
The Seahawks also have the best statistical defense in the league. They have a 94.7 adjusted defensive rating in conference per KenPom, and are led by the best rim protector (Folahan) in the NEC, and the two time defensive player of the year, Ortiz. For those of you not up to speed on advanced statistics, a 94.7 rating is REALLLLY good.
They are still deep despite the loss of Harris, going at least two deep at every position, and no team in the league can match their size and athleticism.
At times they lack the offense to keep up with teams like Robert Morris (see the first meeting back on January 25th) and other top tier offenses. That was the main reason they were upset last season by LIU Brooklyn in the NEC tournament. Rivers is really the only consistent scoring threat, and will need to play well in the NEC tournament for Wagner to advance far.
While the Seahawks have clinched the two seed, they still have a lot to play for come Saturday. A win over 14-1 RMU would do wonders for a team that has struggled at times against the league's best the past few years.
Another big key for Wagner? Figuring out the Colonials matchup style 2-3 zone. In the last matchup, Robert Morris was without the services of big man Stephan Hawkins due to foul trouble for much of the game. He only played 14 minutes, and grabbed only one rebound in that contest. When Hawk was on the floor, Wagner really struggled to manufacture points in the half court.
If Wagner is to win the NEC tournament, they will likely have to beat RMU in the process, so figuring out a few ways to beat that 2-3 would certainly help.
Wagner also has a fighting chance, if they are to win the NEC tournament, to pickup a 15 seed in the NCAA tournament. In order for that to happen, they need to beat Robert Morris, probably twice. So down he road it could be a beneficial win.
What the Colonials have on the line....
First off, much like Thursday night, my number one wish....
NO INJURIES!!
I would also like to see a few less minutes for Karvel Anderson (39 Thursday) and Ant Myers Pate (38 Thursday). Andy Toole chose to rest Hawk and get that ankle healed up, which was a good call, but it forced him to play Vel and Ant a lot more then I'm sure he wanted to. Hopefully this game, they each play less then 28 minutes (which is around their per-game average).
RMU needs a healthy, fresh "Crazy 8" come Wednesday.
The Colonials will also be shooting for their 20th win of the season. Getting to 20 wins is always an accomplishment, but doing it with a 5-10 non-conference record is even more impressive. Oh yea, there's the whole eight guys thing too.
Get to 20 boys.
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| None of this!!!! Please! (AP) |
As for actual play on the court, it would be nice to see the team jump out to a lead and sustain it. These comebacks the past three games (16 points, 12 points, 15 points all in the second half) have been a lot of fun, but as I stated in the post game report, that is flirting with fire. You're not winning three straight games in the NEC tournament by falling behind by double-digits each contest.
I also would like to see Chuck Oliver and Lucky Jones shoot a good percentage. This is a good opportunity for both, because Wagner is the type of team that will really make Karvel work for his points. Others, mainly Oliver and Jones, will have to step up and provide offense.
Odds are, if Robert Morris is going to win the NEC tournament, there will be at least one game in which Karvel is a tad off and will need someone else to provide offense (Though maybe Karvel will just continue amazing me and score 30 plus each game).
Jones and Oliver can do it. They have done it. But these past few games, both have shot some ugly percentages. Getting these two going heading into the NEC tournament would be ideal.
Like Wagner, RMU could also use the win to improve their seed if they are to make the NCAA tournament. Wagner is currently the highest rated team in the KenPom standings (excluding RMU of course). It would be a solid road win for the resume.
Action elsewhere:
As noted above, the rest of the NEC still has a lot to play for. The field of eight is set (with CCSU clinching the last spot, eliminating three time defending champ LIU Thursday night), but every seed from three to eight has yet to be decided.
For the Colonials purpose, the only seed that matters, is the eight seed. After all, if they don't beat the eight seed in the first round, the rest of the field does not matter.
It will come down to FDU and CCSU. If the Knights win at St Francis Brooklyn, CCSU must win at Sacred Heart to maintain the seven seed. A Knights win and a Blue Devils loss, and RMU will played Central Connecticut first round. If FDU loses, the Knights will make the trip to Moon no matter the result of the CCSU/Sacred Heart game.
PS: CCSU is as dangerous an eight seed as this league has ever had if they are to fall to that position. With Kyle Vinales back, RMU would like to avoid them.
--Lee Kunkel
--@Kunkel5
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