NEC preview mega-chat

Karvel Anderson looks to lead RMU to the big dance (p/c: Justin Berl)

Chris: Alright boss, NEC play is right around the corner. Time for a MEGA-CHAT! Today is definitely a good day to have such a thing; I'm absolutely losing my mind over Mike Piazza being snubbed from the baseball HOF.

Anyways, to basketball. It was an... interesting out of conference season. St. Francis Brooklyn pulled some nice upsets, LIU almost beat Indiana (then lost Julian Boyd), FDU won 4 (!!!!!!!!!!!!) games, and RMU plays a zone now. Lets start with the Colonials. Lee, I know you think RMU is going to dominate the NEC...

Lee: Lot's to talk about here Chris, so let’s get it rolling. We cover the Colonials so let’s start with them.

First off, I don't so much think RMU will run away with the league because of what they're doing, but more whats happening around the league. No team has stepped up as the team "team to beat", and I think RMU's flaws are more than fixable. 

We know the D stinks, but not many teams in the league have a decent D, let alone a GOOD D. Only St. Francis Brooklyn can claim to be an above average defensive group, though Wagner has their moments.

Andy Toole and company have played an insane schedule. It was brutal, and with all the newcomers, the results were not pretty. With that said I think it prepared the team for NEC play. RMU is 5-0 against teams outside the top 200 in the KenPom rankings. They're 0-10 against teams inside the top 200 (with some tight losses to EMU, Toledo, and Oakland). 

Guess what? Only Bryant is inside the top 200 in the NEC. That tells me RMU is going to win a lot of games against NEC level competition, because they have done just that in the non-conference. Other league contenders (Bryant, Wagner, Mount, SFNY,) all have at least one loss to a team sub-

250 in the KenPom rankings.

As for the Colonials main issue (DEFENSE), it's correctable. Playing more comparable competition will help, and it's something Andy Toole should be able to fix. The guy swears by defense, and as we saw against Alabama, it's starting to round into form.

Health is another BIG issue for teams around the league, and thus far (knock on wood) the Colonials have dodged the big injury. Many other teams can't say the same. 

These combination of things lead me to believe that RMU will go something like 12-4 (13-3 at best, 10-6 at worst) which should be enough to win the league regular season title. Your thoughts on the Colonials? 

Chris: I tend to agree. It's been really interesting watching this team grow. The two biggest issues this team has had: defense and bench play. I don't think the defense will ever be where Toole wants it to be. Just when you think the zone has solved problems, Oakland hangs a hundred on them. That lack of consistency really scares me. Overall, I do like the 2-3 zone though. It's really aggressive and is forcing some tough shots. Rebounding is always going to be a minor issue with this team anyway, so switching to a 2-3 is fine with me.

As for the bench play, that's what scares me most. Can this team really win the NEC with 7 trustworthy guys? Does Toole even have seven guys he can trust? I'm not sure. It certainly is getting better. Aaron Tate is rebounding better, Chuck Oliver goes on personal 10 point runs like it's his job and Stephan Hawkins all of a sudden has found his baseline jumper. One guy we really liked was Juanie Newton but is he even still alive? Toole is building extensions for his doghouse to move him even farther back.

Can David Appolon give RMU some much needed bench
minutes? (p/c: Justin Berl)

Lee: The bench is a bigger worry to me. Toole's pedigree and the downgrade in competition tend to point toward a better defensive output, at least in my opinion. We will see, there are still a lot of moving parts going on as the team transitions to zone.

Back to the bench.

I really like what I've seen from Hawk, Oliver, Tate, and Stewart, at certain times. Consistency is the name of the game though.

Oliver is the one I worry least about. He seems to have found his footing, and his skillset on the offensive side is something nobody on the team has, outside of Karvel Anderson (who is playing at an All-NEC level). He just needs to continue to grow on the defensive end, which it appears he is doing. 

Hawk is so up and down, but he's strung together a few nice games in a row now, and that's a good sign. Him, along with Mike McFadden, may have a simple answer to their struggles. Just stay out of foul trouble. If they can do that, it allows both to play with much more aggression, something both need to be successful.

Both these issues will certainly be something to track. If RMU can improve both areas, they will be a very strong team.

Enough about the Colonials, let's look at the rest of the league. Who are some of the teams that will fight for that number one seed in the NEC tournament?

Chris: One last note about RMU: I am worried about some of the mental toughness of this team. We've seen some shady things just through social networking, and not just from freshman who don't know better. 

As for the rest of the NEC, I hate to do this but I think LIU is done without Julian Boyd. Such an unfortunate situation for him. I think the other team in Brooklyn is the most intriguing. St. Francis can play defense like no one's business but do they have enough on offense? Outside of Jalen Cannon it doesn't appear so. They realllllly need Ben Mockford to find his three point stroke. He was a 40% shooter from three last year and is down at 34.6 now

Lee: I'm alone on this train, but I'm not buying the Terriers. I still think Wagner is going to be a big time threat, and I'm not off the Mount bandwagon quite yet. The injuries have killed them, but their is still a lot of talent there. 

Julian Norfleet could win NEC player of the year. He's sensational. Rashad Whack is still one of the better offensive players in the conference, from a skill-set point-of-view, and they need Sam Prescott to get his act together, but that's a strong trio. 

If I had to map out a top 4 (and a first round home game) I would go, RMU, Bryant, Wagner, Mount, in that order. SFNY is next up, and behind that there isn't much. 

LIU has been murdered by injuries like you said, they will find it hard to break into the top four. Then again, the media, and many, have doubted them before, and all those guys do is win in March. They still have Brickman, so I won't bury them quite yet. 

One team I have to mention is those Bryant Bulldogs. Many projections have them winning the NEC, including KenPom, and Ken's projections are deadly accurate. 

Is Bryant the favorites in the NEC?

The emergence of Freshman Dan Garvin has been huge for Tim O'Shea. Much like Jeremiah Worthem at RMU, Garvin has given the Bulldogs a athletic threat on the wing to add to their other weapons.

They still have Alex Francis and Dyami Starks, so one would expect the Bulldogs offense to continue to thrive.

They also have a lot more depth than last year, and they added a lot of experience with the run they made in 2012-2013. Last year they were in uncharted waters. This year they know what to expect. 

Chris: What a surprise, you're right on. Experience for Bryant is bigger than any player for them. They also have a great home court advantage, making a potential 1 seed crucial for them. 

The thing that scares me with Wagner is just how talented they are. They're very good defenders, just by nature of how athletic they are, have experience, but just can't figure it out on offense. When you watch them it just doesn't look fluid. 

One team I was high on to start the year was CCSU. I knew they weren't going to be able to defend but what's up on offense? That backcourt can still dominate the NEC. 

Lee: The loss of Matt Hunter for the season is big time though. They have had a good amount of injuries too. We all know what Kyle Vinales is capable of and I'm sure they will shock a few teams at home, but I can't see them making much noise. They should make the NEC tournament as a seven or eight seed, but that might be about it.

(Update: Kyle Vinales is out 5-6 weeks with a broken finger, a huge blow for the Blue Devils.)

FDU and SFPA will have an uphill climb to make the NEC tourny, but FDU did show some life in the middle of non-conference play. Both those squads have some guys who can beat you (I love Earl Brown, he's a do it all forward that will give some teams a major headache) and the goal should be to fight for a postseason berth. 

Predicting the league top to bottom is as hard as its even been, given all the inconsistencies within the league for each and every team, but I'll take a swing at it.

1. RMU, 2. Bryant, 3. Wagner, 4. Mount, 5. SFNY, 6. LIU, 7. Sacred Heart, 8. CCSU, 9. FDU, 10. SFPA  

Chris: I can’t wait to watch Sidney Sanders Jr. The kid tore up out of conference play.

Every team has some obvious flaws, which makes it hard to pick the NEC. I am buying the Terriers because I’m partial to teams that can get stops and St. Francis can certainly do that. If I had to make a “bold” pick I guess it would be LIU barely makes the NEC tournament and finishes as a seven seed. I think CCSU gets it together. I loved them going into the year and they have way too much talent on offense to not figure it out, even without Matt Hunter.

Here are my picks:

1.Bryant 2. RMU 3. Mount St. Mary’s 4. Wagner 5. St. Francis Brooklyn 6. Central Connecticut State 7. LIU 8. Sacred Heart 9. FDU 10. St. Francis (PA)

Enjoy NEC action!