CTC will tale a look at the possible seeding.
MOUNT ST MARYS:
 |
| Mount will be in Dayton should they win the NEC. (ESPN) |
If the Mount pulls their second upset in a row Tuesday night, there is almost no doubt they will be going to Dayton for the First Round, and playing in the "play-in" round much like LIU Brooklyn last year.
The Mount is under .500 currently, and a win would make them 16-16. There's almost no way four teams pull upsets in other conferences to push Mount out of Dayton and into the field of 64.
For Mount's purposes, playing in Dayton would actually be a good thing. A nationally televised game that they could win, and bring in extra money to the league. That's a lot better then being one of the two 16 seed's that avoid Dayton.
A first round loss is almost a guarantee against a one seed (no 16 has ever beaten a 1).
Of course the negative, as we saw last year with LIU, is actually losing that game. No money, and you're out of NCAA tournament before it really gets started on Thursday.
(BEST SEED: 16 seed, no realistic shot at anything higher. Play in round would be likely)
ROBERT MORRIS:
The Colonials, who will host the NEC Title Tuesday night (#PackTheChuck), have been in many brackets for a couple of weeks (most Bracketologist slot the regular season leader as the league champ) as a 16 seed. They have fluctuated between a 16 play in round contestant, and a 16 in the field.
As stated above, if you're going to be a 16, it's better to play in the first round (aka play in round) and try to earn that extra money for your league and get a win over another 16 seed.
Neither might be the case for RMU if they can find away to beat the Mount.
With multiple upsets in leagues around the country before champ week is even halfway over, the Colonials are looking like a solid 15 seed, with a 14 still possible.
 |
| RMU's resume as of Sunday night. (ESPN) |
Let's start with the leagues that are done, and have handed out their automatic berth.
Undefeated Wichita State won the Valley, they will be a likely one seed. Harvard won the Ivy, and will certainly be a higher seed then RMU.
Mercer won the A-Sun, which hurts RMU because they may have been seeded ahead of Florida Gulf Coast (Aka Dunk City), but they won't have a shot at getting ahead of Mercer. Eastern Kentucky was a surprise winner in the Ohio Valley, but they still have a stronger profile and should finish ahead of RMU.
Coastal Carolina won the Big South. If RMU win's the NEC, they will be ahead of Chanticleers on Selection Sunday.
Here are the leagues that will benefit RMU should the Colonials win Tuesday.
In the Horizon league, Milwaukee upset Green Bay. The Phoenix would have been a very dangerous 12 seed, one that many hope can make it as an at-large (if they do it won't hurt RMU so we can all root for a fellow mid major to make it in). Wright State will now battle Milwaukee for the Horizon title, and both don't have a profile as strong as RMU.
In the American East, Vermont was upended by Albany in the Semifinals. Vermont would have been a very good 14 seed. Not anymore. Albany would certainly be seeded below the Colonials, but the other semifinal team, Stony Brook, will be close. The Seawolves have a better profile, but RMU has the better computer numbers, including a much better RPI (122 to 179). I would think RMU would be the better seed.
In the Southern conference, Western Carolina upset Davidson, who like Green Bay and Vermont only loss one game all season in league play. (Read this on regular season champs getting screwed, like RMU got screwed last year, hopefully not this year, though with that said, I like the current format with tournament champs going. Makes this time of year better.) Western Carolina will play Wofford in the Southern Title game, and neither team has a shot at catching RMU if the Colonials go dancing (I'm going to keep saying if*, no jinx please.)
In the Patriot League, American will battle Boston University in the title game. Boston U would no doubt be at least a 14 seed, and would finish ahead of RMU if both qualify. American and RMU would be a close call, but I think American gets the edge. They would add a win at Boston to their profile, and that would help their numbers including an RPI. RMU can only pick up another sub 200 win. This would be tight.
In the Big Sky (March 13-15), Weber State (The fighting Damian Lillard's) is the favorite. RMU would finish ahead of Wildcats, and any other team in the league.
The Big West (March 13-15) is a "wildcard league," where RMU could use an upset if they beat Mount. The Anteaters of UC Irvine would be ahead of the Colonials, as would two seed UC Santa Barbara. RMU would finish ahead of the rest of the league, so root for some upsets here.
In the MEAC (March 10-15), NC Central is the big time favorite. The Eagles are 23-5 against D-1 teams, and went 15-1 in conference. They would be ahead of RMU if both make the NCAA's. Anyone else in the league would finish behind RMU, so root for an upset.
Much like the MEAC, the Southland (March 12-15) regular season champ, Stephen F. Austin is a huge favorite. The Lumberjacks went 18-0 and really weren't tested, but they will have to win two more games to get to the dance. Any other representative would finish below RMU. The Lumberjacks would not.
In the Summit (March 8-11) North Dakota State is well ahead of RMU. They have a top 70 RPI and good wins over Towson and Delaware. However this is another potential gem for the Colonials if they beat Mount. The rest of the Summit would finish seeded behind RMU, and it will be a competitive conference tournament.
The Sun Belt (March 13-16) provides another possible opportunity, but it's a stretch. Georgia State is certainly the favorite, and runner up Western Kentucky would also likely finish ahead of RMU. Need a few upsets here.
In the SWAC (where six teams are not eligible for the NCAA tournament) there isn't anyone that would finish ahead of RMU.
The WAC one seed, Utah Valley, would not finish ahead of RMU, but the second seed, New Mexico State, certainly would. The Aggies own an RPI of 72, and have three top 100 wins including one at New Mexico (22 in the RPI). Colonials fans want the one seed to win this league title, should the Colonials get past Mount.
Currently on the S-Curse, RMU would be ahead of Coastal Carolina (Big South), the Horizon champ, Southern champ, Big Sky Champ, and SWAC Champ. They would be the last 16 seed in the bracket, but there are at least eight other leagues in which they could get help between now and Selection Sunday if they can take care of the Mount Tuesday.
(SEED SCENARIO: RMU should finish as a 15. Best case, a few more upsets then expected, and a 14 seed.)
A link for all the brackets: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/schedules/conference-tournament
A handy link to check RPI's and resumes: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/RPI/teamId/2523
--Lee Kunkel
--@Kunkel5
No comments:
Post a Comment