Thursday, December 5, 2013

Time to panic? Not quite yet.

Well that four game road trip didn't go well. The Colonials lost the opener at Cleveland State, got bounced by Buffalo, fell short against Delaware, and then lost the final game at Youngstown State.

The weird thing? Each game followed the same script. The Colonials came out in each game, grabbed a lead, but fell apart defensively and got beat in the second half. Is it concerning? Sure, especially the defense, which has been terrible. 

After the loss to the Penguins, Toole said "It's more of the same. I don't know what it's going to take for us to understand how important defending is."

The numbers are ugly. Very ugly.
Lucky Jones and the Colonials are 3-6. Time to panic?
(Photo: Pitt Sport Report)

I'll spare you that crappy KenPom numbers (if you're brave, check them out) but this is RMU's first four game losing streak since 04-05.

They have given up 80 or more points in seven of their nine games, they only gave up 80+ twice all season last year. 

They miss last year's seniors (Velton, Russ) and the transfers certainly haven't helped (Coron, Lijah). But guess what, they aren't coming back. This team can either find some defensive toughness, or continue to struggle.

Ok, now the good news....

This is EXACTLY what the non-conference schedule is for (at least for one bid teams/conferences like RMU/NEC)!!

Find out your weaknesses and strengths, and then adjust so you are playing your best ball come January when NEC play starts to position yourself for home court in the NEC tournament. 

Sure, coach Toole would love to be 7-2 right now, but he would rather get his team prepared for NEC play, and WIN an NEC tournament championship if this is what it takes. It's NCAA tournament on bust for Toole and the Colonials this year. 

He's won 20 plus games before, he's won regular season championships, and beaten UK. He hasn't made the NCAA tournament as a head coach.

RMU has also played a very challenging schedule up to this point. Kentucky was number one in the country, Youngstown State is 7-3 and ranked 21st in the mid-major top 25. Cleveland State had Kentucky on the ropes and will contend in the Horizon, Eastern Michigan (26th in the mid-major poll) and Buffalo will contend for the MAC crown, and Delaware is a CAA contender (and a terrible match-up for RMU).

This stretch has been tough, and will only get tougher. Saturday RMU plays Toledo at the Chuck. The Rockets are flying high (get it...)  at 7-0 and just dropped 90 points on Detroit last night (more on that game later). Then RMU plays at Duquesne who is looking to snap a three game losing streak to the Colonials. 

The Colonials still play at Alabama, and at #9 Oklahoma State. The way RMU is currently playing, there is a solid shot RMU will be 4-11 heading into NEC play. Is that what they want? No. But they need this challenge to grow as a team. 

Will it take time? Yes, after all he's [Toole] working in two freshmen (one starts, and one plays point guard) and three transfers. The team has also played seven of their nine games on the road. It's clear he is still trying to find out what he has, and who plays well together.

Sure, RMU won't use that as an excuse, especially when the same problems seem to happen every game. But the Colonials have taken care of business at home (2-0 at the Chuck) and each and every problem is something head coach Andy Toole can fix.

The defense will come along. It has to. RMU has the athleticism and skill to be a very good defensive team, and the formula has worked every year of the Rice/Toole era. Time, and adjustments are needed, but the Colonials have that. The first NEC game isn't until January ninth, at Sacred Heart.

Do we have currently have problems? Yes. Are they fixable? Yes. Could things be worse? Yes (Fellow NEC contenders Mount St. Mary's are down to just seven scholarship players, and they play the HAVOC style, so yea we got it easy right now). 

Beat the offensive juggernaut, and #8 (mid-major) ranked Toledo Rockets Saturday, and a lot of those problems start to fade away. The Colonial Crazies will have a "red-out" for the game, and it will be needed (If the Chuck isn't packed, it will be veryyyy disappointing). This Toledo team is the best squad to come to the Chuck in the Toole era (They already beat Boston College of the ACC on the road).... Better than the DJ Cooper lead Ohio Bobcats, and yes, better than the 12-13 Kentucky Wildcats.

Win or lose though, it's all about what happens come January, and more important, March.

-- Lee Kunkel
-- @Kunkel5

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