Game 10 recap: shooting 63 percent from the field and still losing sucks

Robert Morris dropped their fifth straight to Toledo by a score of 80-77. This will probably be the best game RMU has offensively, which makes the loss that much more frustrating. RMU shot 63.3 percent from the field and 71.4 percent from three. Sadly enough, RMU went 5-12 from the free throw line, including a big miss from Anthony Myers-Pate on the front end of a 1-and-1 late in the second half and a miss from Karvel Anderson on another front end with one second left down three.

This was a generally fun game to watch. Toledo is one of the best offensive teams in the country and has a deep bench. RMU had a 41-37 lead at half and held the Rockets to well below their season averages in shooting percentages. The second half went back and forth with no lead extending past six points. RMU had the ball down three with 12 seconds left but was unable to tie it up. Some quick thoughts:

-Karvel Anderson and Lucky Jones were simply amazing, missing only four shots and scoring 48 points combined. Both had their moments; Karvel nailed back-to-back contested three’s late in the second half and Lucky had some realllllllly tough drives to the bucket with nice finishes. Not much more to add on that, end… It’s just knda the expectation with those two guys now.

-RMU played a 2-3 zone the entire game. Toole actually said postgame the plan was to play a 3/4 press but the guys “must have forgot” to do so seven of the first nine possessions. I thought the zone went pretty well or at the very least slowed down the game which is always good against Toledo.

RMU is struggling so much on D that it was nice to just see anything that moderately worked. It’ll be interesting to see if this is something that sticks.

-Toole’s post game press conference was equal parts fascinating/truthful/insightful/angry. He talked a lot about his bench play, eventually summing it up to this: there’s no one to trust outside of Kavon Stewart. Another great point he made: Stephan Hawkins, Aaron Tate, Charles Oliver, Desjuan Newton, and David Appolon totaled for zero points, assists, blocks, and steals and had one assist and two turnovers. I mean… it speaks for itself how bad it is.

-RMU once again was awful from the free throw line, a discrepancy that’s losing them games. In the first half, Toledo wasn’t in the bonus until under a minute but in the second half they were in it at around the 7:00 mark. Toledo only shot 22 free throws but made 19. RMU might as well have everyone shoot free throws left handed at this point, as they went 5-12.

There’s probably more to add but this is all I have for now. Feel free to leave some thoughts of your own.

--Chris Cappella

--@C_Cappella

Game day: RMU vs. Toledo

Robert Morris (3-6) vs. Toledo (7-0)

When: Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 4 p.m.

Where: The Charles L. Sewall Center

KenPom: RMU 195, Toledo 81

Link: NECFrontRow.com or RMUradio.com

Storyline: RMU returns home hoping to avoid a five game losing streak against a tough Toledo squad

Getting to know the Rockets: This should be a great matchup. A battle of one incredible offense (Toledo) and an even better defense in RMU…. wait… what?... RMU is giving up 80 points per game? Oh. This should be interesting.

As stated about Toledo can really, really score. All five starters average double digits in scoring with Rian Pearson being the star at 17.7 points per game. Point guard Julius Brown is having an outstanding season, averaging 15 points and seven assists. As a team, Toledo shoots 52 percent from the floor, 39.8 percent from three, and 72.7 percent from the line. AS A TEAM.

Toledo’s averaging 92 points per game, good for third best in the country. They’ve dropped 100 in two games and have only been held under 80 once. The funny thing is, this a good matchup for RMU; there’s no real size advantage for either team.

Keys to the game: LOVED this quote by coach Toole, via Andrew Chiappazzi’s game preview: 

“We’re the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the Northeast Conference. We’re the 10th defensive rebounding team in the Northeast Conference. That just goes to show you where the effort is and where guys’ focus is.”

It’s very true. This team either has A) no concept of how to play defense (entirely possible) or B) has no interest in playing defense. This is going to be a huge challenge for the Colonials. Just about every open shot Toledo gets they’re going to nail. RMU has to work their asses off on the defensive end to have any chance. This is one of those games where I think we see Toole consistently play eleven guys the whole game.

Toledo isn’t all too great defensively. If RMU can move the ball they should get open looks, especially from three. This is one aspect I think RMU will have an advantage in. Everyone is more comfortable at home and hopefully some of these open looks will fall. Prediction: Chuck Oliver has a big game today.

So that’s about that. It’d be nice to beat a really good Toledo squad but it can’t happen without defense. This is a friendly reminder to students to wear red, be loud, and get there early to get your free wrist band courtesy of the RMU crazies board. Teams really struggle when the Chuck is packed.

See you at 4!

--Chris Cappella

--@C_Cappella  

RMU by the numbers

A pretty obvious statement that might not actually seem so obvious to the general public: RMU has been super good on offense. Offense is not the problem for this team. Defense is. With that being said, it’s nearly impossible to statistically analyze defense (although we’ll give it a shot later). So we’re going to take a deeper look at RMU by the numbers.

There are some interesting offensive numbers to look at. I commented last night on how it feels like RMU just isn’t the same team from beyond the arc and the numbers will back that up. Last season, nearly 37 percent of the total points came from three. So far this year? That figure is at 31 percent. Even with Coron Williams and Russell Johnson, gone, RMU’s three point percentage as a team is 36.7 percent. That’s a pretty awesome percentage considering the amount of road games the team has played. Keep letting it fly from three!

The biggest flaw the team has is its two-point shooting. Its overall mark of 43.4 percent is outside of the top 300 in basketball. It’s not like the team doesn’t have shooters, because they do, but the shot selection can be brutal sometimes.

Ideally, with a team like RMU, you’re either shooting a three or getting to the rim. This team has plenty of guys who can do both. Problem is, they aren’t. RMU’s percentage of shots at the rim (33.1 percent) sucks, as does their field goal percentage (51.7). This means we’re seeing lotsssssss of jumpers. Yuck.

RMU hasn't been getting to the rim and finsihing like this a

whole lot (P/C: Kyle Gorcey)

I think there’s a pretty clear solution to that. When the big men are on the floor and not setting screens, they should be locked in on the low post, especially Mike McFadden. I think Mike is having a fine year but there’s so much more he could be doing. His usage rate is the highest on the team… good. Bad: our center is taking most of his shots away from the rim. Mike’s strength is posting up and using his long stride and spin moves to get to the basket and draw fouls. When 45 percent of your shots are jumpers but you’re only hitting 29 percent of them, it creates some bad offensive possessions. Teams are just going to let him take jumpers.

Mike is just a small image in a bigger picture. Why can’t RMU do anything at the rim? The average college basketball team is hitting 60 percent of their shots at the rim. RMU is at 51. Is there some curse on the Colonials this year? Is someone playing with a voodoo doll? Did the players come together and decide to not hit anything at the rim to lose games for Toole? These are all questions I have.

One more thing I’d like to point out: Anthony Myers-Pate is really struggling. For someone who plays a lot of minutes and does almost all of the ball handling, he has the fifth worse offensive rating on the team, and that’s a figure that has recently gone up. His assist rate is good but that’s a figure that I think will go down if he doesn’t shoot the ball better (34.6 percent from the floor). Eventually, teams are going to play way off and take away passing lanes and dare him to shoot.

Some other cool odds and ends: Karvel Anderson is ranked in the top 250 nationally in effective and true shooting percentage and is 27 in turnover rate. If Karvel gets a shot at the next level, it will probably be at point guard, and that’s a number he can certainly point to to help his case… Lucky Jones is super good at getting to the rim and drawing fouls, ranking in the top 300 in fouls drawn per 40 and fee throw rate. His jump shot probably isn’t where he wants it to be yet, but a good player still manges to get buckets, and that’s what he does. Jeremiah Worthem also ranks in the top 300 in turnover rate. This might seem like a moot point but remember that when teams press RMU Worthem is usually the relief guy, meaning the primary ball handler is looking for him when the double comes in the back court. Charles Oliver is really good at finishing at the rim (83.3 field goal percentage)… Stephan Hawkins is not (27.3 percent).

--Chris Cappella

--@C_Cappella

Time to panic? Not quite yet.

Well that four game road trip didn't go well. The Colonials lost the opener at Cleveland State, got bounced by Buffalo, fell short against Delaware, and then lost the final game at Youngstown State.

The weird thing? Each game followed the same script. The Colonials came out in each game, grabbed a lead, but fell apart defensively and got beat in the second half. Is it concerning? Sure, especially the defense, which has been terrible. 

After the loss to the Penguins, Toole said "It's more of the same. I don't know what it's going to take for us to understand how important defending is."

The numbers are ugly. Very ugly.

Lucky Jones and the Colonials are 3-6. Time to panic?
(Photo: Pitt Sport Report)

I'll spare you that crappy KenPom numbers (if you're brave, check them out) but this is RMU's first four game losing streak since 04-05.

They have given up 80 or more points in seven of their nine games, they only gave up 80+ twice all season last year. 

They miss last year's seniors (Velton, Russ) and the transfers certainly haven't helped (Coron, Lijah). But guess what, they aren't coming back. This team can either find some defensive toughness, or continue to struggle.

Ok, now the good news....

This is EXACTLY what the non-conference schedule is for (at least for one bid teams/conferences like RMU/NEC)!!

Find out your weaknesses and strengths, and then adjust so you are playing your best ball come January when NEC play starts to position yourself for home court in the NEC tournament. 

Sure, coach Toole would love to be 7-2 right now, but he would rather get his team prepared for NEC play, and WIN an NEC tournament championship if this is what it takes. It's NCAA tournament on bust for Toole and the Colonials this year. 

He's won 20 plus games before, he's won regular season championships, and beaten UK. He hasn't made the NCAA tournament as a head coach.

RMU has also played a very challenging schedule up to this point. Kentucky was number one in the country, Youngstown State is 7-3 and ranked 21st in the mid-major top 25. Cleveland State had Kentucky on the ropes and will contend in the Horizon, Eastern Michigan (26th in the mid-major poll) and Buffalo will contend for the MAC crown, and Delaware is a CAA contender (and a terrible match-up for RMU).

This stretch has been tough, and will only get tougher. Saturday RMU plays Toledo at the Chuck. The Rockets are flying high (get it...)  at 7-0 and just dropped 90 points on Detroit last night (more on that game later). Then RMU plays at Duquesne who is looking to snap a three game losing streak to the Colonials. 

The Colonials still play at Alabama, and at #9 Oklahoma State. The way RMU is currently playing, there is a solid shot RMU will be 4-11 heading into NEC play. Is that what they want? No. But they need this challenge to grow as a team. 

Will it take time? Yes, after all he's [Toole] working in two freshmen (one starts, and one plays point guard) and three transfers. The team has also played seven of their nine games on the road. It's clear he is still trying to find out what he has, and who plays well together.

Sure, RMU won't use that as an excuse, especially when the same problems seem to happen every game. But the Colonials have taken care of business at home (2-0 at the Chuck) and each and every problem is something head coach Andy Toole can fix.

The defense will come along. It has to. RMU has the athleticism and skill to be a very good defensive team, and the formula has worked every year of the Rice/Toole era. Time, and adjustments are needed, but the Colonials have that. The first NEC game isn't until January ninth, at Sacred Heart.

Do we have currently have problems? Yes. Are they fixable? Yes. Could things be worse? Yes (Fellow NEC contenders Mount St. Mary's are down to just seven scholarship players, and they play the HAVOC style, so yea we got it easy right now). 

Beat the offensive juggernaut, and #8 (mid-major) ranked Toledo Rockets Saturday, and a lot of those problems start to fade away. The Colonial Crazies will have a "red-out" for the game, and it will be needed (If the Chuck isn't packed, it will be veryyyy disappointing). This Toledo team is the best squad to come to the Chuck in the Toole era (They already beat Boston College of the ACC on the road).... Better than the DJ Cooper lead Ohio Bobcats, and yes, better than the 12-13 Kentucky Wildcats.

Win or lose though, it's all about what happens come January, and more important, March.

-- Lee Kunkel

-- @Kunkel5

Game 9 recap: A defense that's indefensible

Four in a row

RMU fell to Youngstown State 84-76.

I can’t wait until RMU comes back home so their games will be archived on NECFrontRow.com. There is so much I would love to demonstrate using screen grabs that I just can’t do but will try to anyway.

Pick and roll defense is beyond clueless. Sometimes the big guys hedge and sometimes not. Sometimes there’s a double team. Sometimes there’s a switch. Almost all the time the other team scores. The biggest problem I’m seeing: off ball defender hedges screen but can’t get back in time, forcing another defender to rotate which leads to another man rotating to the rotators man, which most of the time comes really late giving lots of good looks near the rim. And wow did Youngstown State have a lot of open looks at the rim.

RMU went to the 2-3 zone every once in a while too, which usually consisted of getting caught in weakside back screens leading to wide open three’s. Another bad thing: YSU shot over 50 percent from the floor.

My point: Getting caught up in so many screens and giving up so many open looks at the rim is really concerning considering we’re almost a third of the way through the season. Toole is trying his best to mix things up but at some point the players have to play.

RMU was strong on offense again. There’s definitely some nitpicking I could do, like Mike McFadden settling for too many jump shots again. Mike is at his best working with his back to the basket with the OCCASIONAL jump shot. He shot 4-9 from the floor today, which isn’t bad, but took a few jump shots I didn’t really like (like his step back long jumper midway in the first half). Also, I’d like to see some more attacking of the rim.

Still, RMU shot 50 percent from the field and went 16-20 from the line. Even though they only went 6-17 from three (still not terrible), those figures are usually good enough to win. Great games from Lucky Jones (24 and 5), Karvel Anderson (18 and 7) and Jeremiah Worthem (12 and 8). Right now, those three are the best players on the team.

Something to keep an eye on is Toole shortened his bench significantly again in the second half. He did the same thing at Delaware. Clearly, the list of the players he trusts in crunch time is shortening.

That’s all for now. Feedback is appreciated!

--Chris Cappella

--@C_Cappella 

RMU cuts 7 sports

Lee: First off, I feel awful for the student athletes who had their respective sport cut. I have a lot of friends on those teams, and it's tough to swallow.

I think they did the right thing, and it will help the university --both in athletics, growth, and financially-- in the future.

Before you blast the school, know this...

"The university will honor all scholarships currently being received by the impacted athletes should they choose to continue their studies at RMU. Certainly, we understand that some of these students may choose to transfer to another institution, and we will assist them in doing so. Under NCAA rules, student athletes who transfer from schools that have eliminated their sport do not have to sit out a season at their new school."

Most universities do not do this when they cut sports. RMU is doing the right thing, and they are not REQUIRED to continue to fund the ex-athletes education. All these athletes will be able to transfer and play right away.

This quote is from the press release provided by the school. It was emailed to every student/alum to their RMU email account.

"Simply put, the size of our Division I athletics program was unsustainable if we want to remain competitive and provide our student athletes with a high-quality experience. Because we offered so many Division I sports – more even than much larger universities such as Pitt and WVU – we spend less money per athlete than most of our peers in the Northeast Conference."

Chris: In talking with people close to the situation, they're not shocked by the cuts itself but more the density of the cuts. Seven is a large numbers of programs to get rid of at one time. Most were expecting 3-5. Out of pure luck, I had a dinner with President Dell'Omo scheduled last night and got to chat with him after about his thoughts and more specifics on numbers...

This is going to continue to be a developing situation that we'll monitor and update. I encourage you to check out our audio for a more advanced discussion...

Must win Time: Robert Morris at Youngstown State

Robert Morris (3-4) at Youngstown State (6-3)
When: Wednesday December 4th 7:45pm
Where: Beeghly Physical Education Center, Youngstown, Ohio
Ken Pom: RMU 190, YSU 170
Story line: The Colonials look to avoid an O'fer on the four game road trip as they travel to Youngstown Ohio to take on the Penguins. RMU hasn't lost four straight since 2004-2005.
 Link: Guys, we're awesome. We get links like Mike Wallace gets money (GO DOLPHINS SUNDAY)... Here you go: http://www.horizonleague.org/live/9604

Getting to know the Penguins:

Not those guys....

Stop Malkin and Crosby and the Colonials should stop this losing streak. Karvel and Lucky must crash the net ha....wait what? Oh, not those Penguins. Well then this should be easy right? (Could you imagine big Mike on skates) ...PS: I can't skate at all (and I'm cracking up at the thought of Chris skating), so Mike would fair better then me (and Cappella) on the ice.

Anyway...

The Penguins are a tough team to measure. They're 6-3 but three of those wins are over D II teams and the D I teams they beat aren't great. They lost to UMASS and Kent State on the road, but were competitive in the Kent State game (the Golden Flash are a solid team).

My biggest worry, YSU winning the game at the free throw line. It's be noted that RMU is struggling to defend, and a lot of that has to do with silly fouls and teams living at the free throw line. YSU is one of the very best free throw shooting teams in the country at 80.2 percent from the line (5th in the country).

The Penguins are going to attack RMU, and look to get to the line as often as possible. The Colonials cannot afford early fouls, or silly hand check fouls. I don't mind making them earn two-points by fouling at the rim if they have an easy layup opportunity, but nothing silly.

Senior guard Kendrick Perry leads the team in scoring at 18.7 ppg and is coming off a season high 32 points his last game. He is shooting 38.7 percent from the field, including a mediocre 32.6 percent from three.

Kamren Belin is second on the team in scoring at 13.7 ppg. His size (6-7, 235) could give RMU some problems. The Colonials have struggled to guard solid offensive big men (a lot of that has to do with Mike McFadden getting in foul trouble).

Keys to the Game:

Obviously there are a lot more "Keys" than one or two specific things, but I gotta be honest, it's ALL about defense for RMU.

RMU needs the NIT version of senior forward
Mike McFadden. 

On Saturday, Delaware hit the 80 point mark, that's the 6th time (in 8 total games) that RMU has allowed 80 points (or more). That.Is.Not.Good.

By comparison, last year RMU gave up 80 or more just twice. So yea, they're struggling on that end.

The Colonials are actually scoring more points-per-100 possessions this season than they EVER did in the Toole/Rice era. They are currently at 106.0 per 100 possessions. Last season they were at 102 on offense. That side of the ball is fine.

Kavon Stewart played pretty well Saturday in his return from suspension. He's got to cut down on the turnovers --and leaving his feet when he has no idea what he's going to do-- but his ability to find guys and get into the lane is incredible.

Prediction: The last time these two met --2011 season--, Coron Williams (man could we use that guy right now, he's playing great at Wake Forest) hit a game winning three at the buzzer to give RMU a 59-56 win.

KenPom has RMU losing 78-72. I disagree. I think the Colonials get the win, fueled by a strong performance by McFadden and freshman Jeremiah Worthem. By the way, City of Basketball Love wrote a great piece on Worthem, I encourage you to all check it out. Link: WORTHEM SHOWING STRIDES IN FIRST COLLEGE SEASON

This is a BIG game for RMU. Obviously they want to avoid an 0-4 road trip, and avoid the first four game losing streak since 04-05. On top of that, the schedule doesn't get any easier.

Toledo comes to the Sewall Center Saturday (Dec. 7th) and they're undefeated (6-0) with wins at Detroit, at Boston College (of the ACC) and Stoney Brook on a neutral court. They're the best team in the MAC, and the Colonials have already lost to two MAC contenders (EMU, Buffalo).

After that, RMU plays at Duquesne, who's playing well and looking to end the longest losing streak the have ever had against RMU (currently three games).

RMU better start playing defense, or the struggles will continue.

-- Lee Kunkel
-- @Kunkel5